BY PAUL ELIAS ALEXANDER OCTOBER 28, 2021
POLICY, PUBLIC HEALTH, VACCINES 20 MINUTE READ
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As some
people have now been vaccinated for more than half a year, evidence is pouring
in about Covid vaccine efficacy. The gestalt of the findings implies that the
infection explosion globally that we have been experiencing– post double
vaccination in e.g. Israel, UK, US etc. –may be due to the vaccinated spreading
Covid as much or more than the unvaccinated.
A natural
question to ask is whether vaccines with limited capacity to prevent
symptomatic disease may drive the evolution of more virulent strains? In a PLoS
Biology article from 2015, Read et al. observed that:
“Conventional wisdom is that natural selection will remove highly lethal
pathogens if host death greatly reduces transmission. Vaccines that keep hosts
alive but still allow transmission could thus allow very virulent strains to
circulate in a population.”
Hence, rather
than the unvaccinated putting the vaccinated at risk, it could theoretically be
the vaccinated that are putting the unvaccinated at risk, but we have not yet
seen any evidence for that.
Here I
summarize studies and reports that shed light on vaccine induced immunity
against Covid. They highlight the problems with vaccine mandates that are
currently threatening the jobs of millions of people. They also raise doubts
about the arguments for vaccinating children.
1) Gazit et al. out of
Israel showed that “SARS-CoV-2-naïve vaccinees had a 13-fold (95% CI, 8-21)
increased risk for breakthrough infection with the Delta variant compared to
those previously infected.” When adjusting for the time of disease/vaccine,
there was a 27-fold increased risk (95% CI, 13-57).
2) Ignoring
the risk of infection, given that someone was infected, Acharya et al. found “no
significant difference in cycle threshold values between vaccinated and
unvaccinated, asymptomatic and symptomatic groups infected with SARS-CoV-2
Delta.”
3) Riemersma et al. found “no
difference in viral loads when comparing unvaccinated individuals to those who
have vaccine “breakthrough” infections. Furthermore, individuals with vaccine
breakthrough infections frequently test positive with viral loads consistent
with the ability to shed infectious viruses.” Results indicate that “if
vaccinated individuals become infected with the delta variant, they may be
sources of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to others.” They reported “low Ct values
(<25) in 212 of 310 fully vaccinated (68%) and 246 of 389 (63%) unvaccinated
individuals. Testing a subset of these low-Ct samples revealed infectious
SARS-CoV-2 in 15 of 17 specimens (88%) from unvaccinated individuals and 37 of
39 (95%) from vaccinated people.”
4) In a study
from Qatar, Chemaitelly et al. reported
vaccine efficacy (Pfizer) against severe and fatal disease, with efficacy in
the 85-95% range at least until 24 weeks after the second dose. As a contrast,
the efficacy against infection waned down to around 30% at 15-19 weeks after
the second dose.
5) From
Wisconsin, Riemersma et al. reported
that vaccinated individuals who get infected with the Delta variant can
transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others. They found an elevated viral load in the
unvaccinated and vaccinated symptomatic persons (68% and 69% respectively,
158/232 and 156/225). Moreover, in the asymptomatic persons, they uncovered
elevated viral loads (29% and 82% respectively) in the unvaccinated and the
vaccinated respectively. This suggests that the vaccinated can be infected,
harbor, cultivate, and transmit the virus readily and unknowingly.
6) Subramanian reported
that “at the country-level, there appears to be no discernable relationship
between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases.”
When comparing 2947 counties in the United States, there were slightly less
cases in more vaccinated locations. In other words, there is no clear
discernable relationship .
7) Chau et al. looked at
transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant among vaccinated healthcare workers in
Vietnams. Of 69 healthcare workers that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, 62
participated in the clinical study, all of whom recovered. For 23 of them,
complete-genome sequences were obtained, and all belonged to the Delta variant.
“Viral loads of breakthrough Delta variant infection cases were 251 times
higher than those of cases infected with old strains detected between
March-April 2020”.
8) In
Barnstable, Massachusetts, Brown
et al found that
among 469 cases of COVID-19, 74% were fully vaccinated, and that “the
vaccinated had on average more virus in their nose than the unvaccinated who
were infected.”
9) Reporting
on a nosocomial hospital outbreak in Finland, Hetemäli et al. observed that “both symptomatic and
asymptomatic infections were found among vaccinated health care workers, and
secondary transmission occurred from those with symptomatic infections despite
use of personal protective equipment.”
10) In
a hospital outbreak investigation
in Israel, Shitrit et al. observed “high transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2
Delta variant among twice vaccinated and masked individuals.” They added that
“this suggests some waning of immunity, albeit still providing protection for
individuals without comorbidities.”
11) In
the UK COVID-19 vaccine Surveillance Report for week #42, it was noted that there is “waning of the N
antibody response over time” and “that N antibody levels appear to be lower in
individuals who acquire infection following 2 doses of vaccination.” The same
report (Table 2, page 13), shows the in the older age groups above 30, the
double vaccinated persons have greater infection risk than the unvaccinated,
presumably because the latter group include more people with stronger natural
immunity from prior Covid disease. As a contrast, the vaccinated people had a
lower risk of death than the unvaccinated, across all age groups, indicating
that vaccines provide more protection against death than against
infection. See also UK PHE reports 43, 44, 45, 46 for similar data.
12) In
Israel, Levin et al. “conducted
a 6-month longitudinal prospective study involving vaccinated health care
workers who were tested monthly for the presence of anti-spike IgG and
neutralizing antibodies”. They found that “six months after receipt of the
second dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine, humoral response was substantially
decreased, especially among men, among persons 65 years of age or older, and
among persons with immunosuppression.”
13) In a
study from New York State, Rosenberg
et al. reported that “During
May 3–July 25, 2021, the overall age-adjusted vaccine effectiveness against
hospitalization in New York was relatively stable 89.5%–95.1%). The overall
age-adjusted vaccine effectiveness against infection for all New York adults
declined from 91.8% to 75.0%.”
14) Suthar et al. noted
that “Our data demonstrate a substantial waning of antibody responses and T
cell immunity to SARS-CoV-2 and its variants, at 6 months following the second
immunization with the BNT162b2 vaccine.”
15) In a
study from Umeå University in Sweden, Nordström et al.
observed that “vaccine effectiveness of BNT162b2 against infection waned
progressively from 92% (95% CI, 92-93, P<0·001) at day 15-30 to 47% (95% CI,
39-55, P<0·001) at day 121-180, and from day 211 and onwards no
effectiveness could be detected (23%; 95% CI, -2-41, P=0·07).”
16) Yahi et al. have
reported that “in the case of the Delta variant, neutralizing antibodies have a
decreased affinity for the spike protein, whereas facilitating antibodies display
a strikingly increased affinity. Thus, antibody dependent enhancement may be a
concern for people receiving vaccines based on the original Wuhan strain spike
sequence.”
17) Goldberg et al. (BNT162b2
Vaccine in Israel) reported that “immunity against the delta variant of
SARS-CoV-2 waned in all age groups a few months after receipt of the second
dose of vaccine.”
18) Singanayagam et al. examined the transmission and viral load kinetics in vaccinated
and unvaccinated individuals with mild delta variant infection in the
community. They found that (in 602 community contacts (identified via the
UK contract-tracing system) of 471 UK COVID-19 index cases were recruited to
the Assessment of Transmission and Contagiousness of COVID-19 in Contacts
cohort study and contributed 8145 upper respiratory tract samples from daily sampling
for up to 20 days) “vaccination reduces the risk of delta variant infection and
accelerates viral clearance. Nonetheless, fully vaccinated individuals with
breakthrough infections have peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases and
can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully
vaccinated contacts.”
19. Keehner et al. in
NEJM, has recently reported on the resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a
highly vaccinated health system workforce. Vaccination with mRNA vaccines
began in mid-December 2020; by March, 76% of the workforce had been fully
vaccinated, and by July, the percentage had risen to 87%. Infections had
decreased dramatically by early February 2021…”coincident with the end of
California’s mask mandate on June 15 and the rapid dominance of the B.1.617.2
(delta) variant that first emerged in mid-April and accounted for over 95% of
UCSDH isolates by the end of July, infections increased rapidly, including
cases among fully vaccinated persons…researchers reported that the “dramatic
change in vaccine effectiveness from June to July is likely to be due to both
the emergence of the delta variant and waning immunity over time.”
20. Juthani et al. sought to describe the impact of vaccination on admission to
hospital in patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection using real-world data
collected by the Yale New Haven Health System. “Patients were considered
fully vaccinated if the final dose (either second dose of BNT162b2 or
mRNA-1273, or first dose of Ad.26.COV2.S) was administered at least 14 days
before symptom onset or a positive PCR test for SARS-CoV-2. In total, we
identified 969 patients who were admitted to a Yale New Haven Health System
hospital with a confirmed positive PCR test for SARS-CoV-2”…Researchers
reported “a higher number of patients with severe or critical illness in those
who received the BNT162b2 vaccine than in those who received mRNA-1273 or
Ad.26.COV2.S…”
21. A very
recent study published by the CDC reported that a majority (53%) of patients who were hospitalized
with Covid-19-like illnesses were already fully vaccinated with two-dose RNA
shots. Table 1 reveals that among the 20,101 immunocompromised adults
hospitalized with Covid-19, 10,564 (53%) were fully-vaccinated with the Pfizer
or Moderna vaccine (Vaccination was defined as having received exactly 2 doses
of an mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine ≥14 days before the hospitalization index
date, which was the date of respiratory specimen collection associated with the
most recent positive or negative SARS-CoV-2 test result before the
hospitalization or the hospitalization date if testing only occurred after the
admission). This highlights the ongoing challenges faced with Delta
breakthrough when vaccinated.
22. Eyre,
2021 looked at The impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination on Alpha &
Delta variant transmission. They reported
that “while vaccination still lowers the risk of infection, similar viral loads
in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals infected with Delta question how
much vaccination prevents onward transmission… transmission reductions declined
over time since second vaccination, for Delta reaching similar levels to
unvaccinated individuals by 12 weeks for ChAdOx1 and attenuating substantially
for BNT162b2. Protection from vaccination in contacts also declined in the 3
months after second vaccination…vaccination reduces transmission of Delta, but
by less than the Alpha variant.”
23. Levine-Tiefenbrun, 2021 looked at Viral loads of Delta-variant SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections after
vaccination and booster with BNT162b2, and reported the viral load reduction effectiveness declines with time
after vaccination, “significantly decreasing at 3 months after vaccination and
effectively vanishing after about 6 months.”
24. Puranik,
2021 looked at a Comparison of two highly-effective mRNA vaccines for
COVID-19 during periods of Alpha and Delta variant prevalence, reporting “In July, vaccine effectiveness
against hospitalization has remained high (mRNA-1273: 81%, 95% CI: 33–96.3%;
BNT162b2: 75%, 95% CI: 24–93.9%), but effectiveness against infection was lower
for both vaccines (mRNA-1273: 76%, 95% CI: 58–87%; BNT162b2: 42%, 95% CI:
13–62%), with a more pronounced reduction for BNT162b2.”
25. Saade,
2021 looked at Live virus neutralization testing in convalescent
patients and subjects vaccinated against 19A, 20B, 20I/501Y.V1 and 20H/501Y.V2
isolates of SARS-CoV-2, and
reported as “Assessed the neutralizing capacity of antibodies to prevent
cell infection, using a live virus neutralization test with different strains
[19A (initial one), 20B (B.1.1.241 lineage), 20I/501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7 lineage), and
20H/501Y.V2 (B.1.351 lineage)] in serum samples collected from different
populations: two-dose vaccinated COVID-19-naive healthcare workers (HCWs;
Pfizer-BioNTech BNT161b2), 6-months post mild COVID-19 HCWs, and critical
COVID-19 patients… finding of the present study is the reduced neutralizing
response observed towards the 20H/501Y.V2 variant in fully immunized subjects
with the BNT162b2 vaccine by comparison to the wild type and 20I/501Y.V1
variant.”
26. Canaday,
2021 looked at Significant reduction in humoral immunity among
healthcare workers and nursing home residents 6 months after COVID-19 BNT162b2
mRNA vaccination,
reporting “Anti-spike, anti-RBD and neutralization levels dropped more
than 84% over 6 months’ time in all groups irrespective of prior SARS-CoV-2
infection. At 6 months post-vaccine, 70% of the infection-naive NH residents
had neutralization titers at or below the lower limit of detection compared to
16% at 2 weeks after full vaccination. These data demonstrate a significant
reduction in levels of antibody in all groups. In particular, those
infection-naive NH residents had lower initial post-vaccination humoral
immunity immediately and exhibited the greatest declines 6 months later.”
27. Israel,
2021 looked at Large-scale study of antibody titer decay following
BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine or SARS-CoV-2 infection, and reported as “To determine the kinetics
of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies following administration of two doses of BNT162b2
vaccine, or SARS-CoV-2 infection in unvaccinated individuals…In vaccinated
subjects, antibody titers decreased by up to 40% each subsequent month while in
convalescents they decreased by less than 5% per month. Six months after
BNT162b2 vaccination 16.1% subjects had antibody levels below the
sero-positivity threshold of <50 AU/mL, while only 10.8% of convalescent
patients were below <50 AU/mL threshold after 9 months from SARS-CoV-2
infection.”
28. Eyran,
2020 examined The longitudinal kinetics of antibodies in COVID-19
recovered patients over 14 months, and found “a significantly faster decay in naïve vaccinees compared to
recovered patients suggesting that the serological memory following natural
infection is more robust compared to vaccination. Our data highlights the
differences between serological memory induced by natural infection vs.
vaccination.”
29. Salvatore et al. examined the transmission potential of vaccinated and unvaccinated
persons infected with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in a federal prison,
July-August 2021. They found a total of 978 specimens were provided by 95
participants, “of whom 78 (82%) were fully vaccinated and 17 (18%) were not
fully vaccinated….clinicians and public health practitioners should consider
vaccinated persons who become infected with SARS-CoV-2 to be no less infectious
than unvaccinated persons.”
30) Andeweg et al. analyzed 28,578 sequenced SARS-CoV-2 samples from individuals with
known immune status obtained through national community testing in the
Netherlands from March to August 2021. They found evidence for an
“increased risk of infection by the Beta (B.1.351), Gamma (P.1), or Delta
(B.1.617.2) variants compared to the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant after vaccination.
No clear differences were found between vaccines. However, the effect was
larger in the first 14-59 days after complete vaccination compared to 60 days
and longer. In contrast to vaccine-induced immunity, no increased risk for
reinfection with Beta, Gamma or Delta variants relative to Alpha variant was
found in individuals with infection-induced immunity.”
31) Di Fusco et al. conducted an evaluation of COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough
infections among immunocompromised patients fully vaccinated with BNT162b2.
“COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections were examined in fully vaccinated
(≥14 days after 2nd dose) IC individuals (IC cohort), 12 mutually exclusive IC
condition groups, and a non-IC cohort.” They found that“of 1,277,747
individuals ≥16 years of age who received 2 BNT162b2 doses, 225,796 (17.7%)
were identified as IC (median age: 58 years; 56.3% female). The most prevalent
IC conditions were solid malignancy (32.0%), kidney disease (19.5%), and
rheumatologic/inflammatory conditions (16.7%). Among the fully vaccinated IC
and non-IC cohorts, a total of 978 breakthrough infections were observed during
the study period; 124 (12.7%) resulted in hospitalization and 2 (0.2%) were
inpatient deaths. IC individuals accounted for 38.2% (N = 374) of
all breakthrough infections, 59.7% (N = 74) of all
hospitalizations, and 100% (N = 2) of inpatient deaths. The proportion with
breakthrough infections was 3 times higher in the IC cohort compared to the
non-IC cohort (N = 374 [0.18%] vs. N = 604
[0.06%]; unadjusted incidence rates were 0.89 and 0.34 per 100 person-years,
respectively.”
32) Mallapaty (NATURE) reported
that the protective effect of being vaccinated if you already had infection is
“relatively small, and dwindles alarmingly at three months after the receipt of
the second shot.” Mallapaty further adds what we have been warning the public
health community which is that persons infected with Delta have about the same
levels of viral genetic materials in their noses “regardless of whether they’d
previously been vaccinated, suggesting that vaccinated and unvaccinated people
might be equally infectious.” Mallapaty reported on testing data from
139,164 close contacts of 95,716 people infected with SARS-CoV-2 between
January and August 2021 in the United Kingdom, and at a time when the
Alpha and Delta variants were competing for dominance. The finding was
that “although the vaccines did offer some protection against infection and
onward transmission, Delta dampened that effect. A person who was fully
vaccinated and then had a ‘breakthrough’ Delta
infection was almost twice as likely to pass on the virus as someone who was
infected with Alpha. And that was on top of the higher risk of having a
breakthrough infection caused by Delta than one caused by Alpha.”
33) Chia et al. reported that PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values were “similar
between both vaccinated and unvaccinated groups at diagnosis, but viral loads
decreased faster in vaccinated individuals. Early, robust boosting of anti-spike
protein antibodies was observed in vaccinated patients, however, these titers
were significantly lower against B.1.617.2 as compared with the wildtype
vaccine strain.”
34) Wilhelm et al. reported on reduced neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 omicron
variant by vaccine sera and monoclonal antibodies. “in vitro findings using authentic SARS-CoV-2 variants indicate that in
contrast to the currently circulating Delta variant, the neutralization
efficacy of vaccine-elicited sera against Omicron was severely reduced
highlighting T-cell mediated immunity as essential barrier to prevent severe
COVID-19.”
35) CDC reported on the details for 43 cases of COVID-19 attributed to the
Omicron variant. They found that “34 (79%) occurred in persons
who completed the primary series of an FDA-authorized or approved COVID-19
vaccine ≥14 days before symptom onset or receipt of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test
result.”
36) Dejnirattisai et al. presented live neutralisation titres against
SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant, and examined it relative to neutralisation against
the Victoria, Beta and Delta variants. They reported a
significant drop in “neutralisation titres in recipients of both AZD1222
and BNT16b2 primary courses, with evidence of some recipients failing to
neutralise at all.”
37) Cele et al. assessed whether Omicron variant escapes antibody neutralization
“elicited by the Pfizer BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine in people who were vaccinated
only or vaccinated and previously infected.” They reported that Omicron
variant “still required the ACE2 receptor to infect but had extensive escape of
Pfizer elicited neutralization.”
38) Holm Hansen et al.’s Denmark study looked at vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2
infection with the Omicron or Delta variants following a two-dose or booster
BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccination series. A key finding was reported as
“VE against Omicron was 55.2% initially following primary BNT162b2 vaccination,
but waned quickly thereafter. Although estimated with less precision, VE
against Omicron after primary mRNA-1273 vaccination similarly indicated a rapid
decline in protection. By comparison, both vaccines showed higher,
longer-lasting protection against Delta.” In other words, the vaccine that has
failed against Delta is even far worse for Omicron. The table and figure below
paint a devastating picture. See where the green dot is (Omicron variant) in
the vertical lines (blue is Delta) and the 2 edges of the bars (upper and lower
lips) 91 days out for Omicron (3 months). Both Pfizer and Moderna show negative
efficacy for Omicron at 31 days (both are below the ‘line of no effect’ or
‘0’). The comparative table is even more devastating for it shows how much less
vaccine effectiveness there is for Omicron. For example, at 1-30 days, Pfizer
showed 55.2% effectiveness for Omicron versus 86.7% for Delta, and for the same
period, Moderna showed 36.7% effectiveness for Omicron versus 88.2% for Delta.
39) UK
reporting showed that boosters protect against symptomatic COVID-19 caused by
Omicron for about 10 weeks; the UK Health Security Agency reported protection against symptomatic
COVID-19 caused by the variant dropped from 70% to 45% following a Pfizer
booster for those initially vaccinated with the shot developed by Pfizer with
BioNTech. Specifically reporting by the UK Health Security Agency showed “Among those who received an
AstraZeneca primary course, vaccine effectiveness was around 60% 2 to 4 weeks
after either a Pfizer or Moderna booster, then dropped to 35% with a Pfizer
booster and 45% with a Moderna booster by 10 weeks after the booster. Among
those who received a Pfizer primary course, vaccine effectiveness was around
70% after a Pfizer booster, dropping to 45% after 10-plus weeks and stayed
around 70 to 75% after a Moderna booster up to 9 weeks after booster.”
40) Buchan et al. used a
test-negative design to assess vaccine effectiveness against OMICRON or DELTA
variants (regardless of symptoms or severity) during November 22 and December
19, 2021. They included persons who had received at least 2 COVID-19 vaccine
doses (with at least 1 mRNA vaccine dose for the primary series) and applied
multivariable logistic regression modelling analysis to “estimate the
effectiveness of two or three doses by time since the latest dose.” They included
3,442 Omicron-positive cases, 9,201 Delta-positive cases, and 471,545
test-negative controls. Following 2 doses, “vaccine effectiveness against Delta
infection declined steadily over time but recovered to 93% (95%CI, 92-94%) ≥7
days after receiving an mRNA vaccine for the third dose. In contrast, receipt
of 2 doses of COVID-19 vaccines was not protective against Omicron. Vaccine
effectiveness against Omicron was 37% (95%CI, 19-50%) ≥7 days after receiving
an mRNA vaccine for the third dose.”
41) Public Health Scotland COVID-19 & Winter
Statistical Report (
Publication date: 19 January 2022) provided startling data on page 38 (case
rates), page 44 (hospitalization), and page 50 (deaths), showing that the
vaccination has failed Delta but critically, is failing omicron. The 2nd inoculation
data is of particular concern. Table 14 age-standardized case data is very
troubling for it shows across the multiple weeks of study that across each dose
(1 vs 2 vs 3 booster inoculations) that the vaccinated are greatly more
infected than the unvaccinated, with the 2nd dose being alarmingly
elevated (see grey rows). Age-standardized rates of acute hospital admissions
are stunningly elevated after 2nd inoculation (over the unvaccinated) during
January 2022. Looking at table 16 that reports on the number of confirmed
COVID-19 related deaths by vaccination status, we again observe massive
elevation in death at the 2ndinoculation. This data indicates to us that the
vaccine is associated with infection and is not optimally working against
omicron and that the protection is limited, waning rapidly.
42) The UK’s COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report Week 3,
20 January 2022, raises very
serious concern as to the failure of the vaccines on Delta (which is basically
now being replaced by omicron for dominance) and omicron. When we look at table
9, page 34 (COVID-19 cases by vaccination status between week 51 2021 and week
2 2022), we see greater case numbers for the 2nd and 3rd inoculations.
The important table on page 38, Figure 12 (unadjusted rates of COVID-19
infection, hospitalization and death in vaccinated and unvaccinated
populations) shows us a continual pattern in the UK data over the last 2 to 3
to 4 months, with the present reporting showing that persons in receipt of the
3rd inoculation
(booster) at far greater risk of infection/cases than the unvaccinated (30
years of age and above age strata).
43) In the
recent UK Public Health surveillance reports Week 9, Week 8, as well as week 7 (UK COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report Week 7 17
February 2022), week 6 (COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report Week 6 10
February 2022) and week 5
for 2022 (COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report Week 5 3 February
2022) as well as the reports
accumulated for 2021 since vaccine roll-out, we see that the vaccinated are at
higher risk of infection and especially for age groups above 18 years old, as
well as hospitalization and even death. This is particularly marked for those
in receipt of double vaccinations. There is increased risk of death for those
who are triple vaccinated and especially as age increases. The same pattern
emerges in the Scottish data.
44.) Regev-Yochay et al. in Israel looked at (publication date March 16th 2022) the
immunogenicity and safety of a fourth dose (4th) of either BNT162b2
(Pfizer–BioNTech) or mRNA-1273 (Moderna) administered 4 months after the third
dose in a series of three BNT162b2 doses). This was an open-label,
nonrandomized clinical study assessing the 4th dose in terms of need
beyond the 3rd dose. Among the ‘1050 eligible health care
workers enrolled in the Sheba HCW COVID-19 Cohort, 154 received the fourth dose
of BNT162b2 and, 1 week later, 120 received mRNA-1273. For each participant,
two age-matched controls were selected from the remaining eligible
participants’.
Researchers
further reported that ‘overall, 25.0% of the participants in the control group
were infected with the omicron variant, as compared with 18.3% of the
participants in the BNT162b2 group and 20.7% of those in the mRNA-1273 group.
Vaccine efficacy against any SARS-CoV-2 infection was 30% (95% confidence
interval [CI], −9 to 55) for BNT162b2 and 11% (95% CI, −43 to 44) for
mRNA-1273…most of the infected participants were potentially infectious, with
relatively high viral loads (nucleocapsid gene cycle threshold, ≤25)’. Results
suggest that maximal immunogenicity of mRNA vaccines is achieved after three
doses. More specifically, researchers ‘observed low vaccine efficacy against
infections in health care workers, as well as relatively high viral loads
suggesting that those who were infected were infectious. Thus, a fourth
vaccination of healthy young health care workers may have only marginal
benefits’.
These finding
are not unknown to public health authorities. In fact, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky have said that the Covid vaccines are working “exceptionally well”
against severe illness and death, but “what they can’t do anymore is prevent
transmission.”
What these
studies show, are that vaccines are important to reduce severe disease and
death, but unable to prevent the disease from spreading and eventually infect
most of us. That is, while the vaccines provide individual benefits to the
vaccinee, and especially to older high-risk people, the public benefit of
universal vaccination is in grave doubt. As such, Covid vaccines should not be
expected to contribute to eliminating the communal spread of the virus or the
reaching of herd immunity. This unravels the rationale for vaccine mandates
and passports.
Author
Dr. Paul Alexander is an epidemiologist focusing on
clinical epidemiology, evidence-based medicine, and research methodology. He
has a bachelor's in epidemiology from McMaster University, and a master's
degree from Oxford University. He earned his PhD from McMaster's Department of
Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact. Paul is a former WHO Consultant
and Senior Advisor to US Department of HHS in 2020 for the COVID-19 response.
