29 Countries Show Strong Association between "Booster Uptake" and "Excess Mortality"
 |
|
The booster rate as of Jul 1 explains excess deaths in 2022, by country, using linear regression with R^2 = 40% and P-value an incredible
0.0002, giving this relationship ironclad statistical significance!
What is this about?
There is much discussion about excess mortality and elevated cancer
rates in 2022. I also wrote about it recently (I am not Gammadion):
Gammadion @mg_downunder
Excess Mortality and Elevated Cancer Rates Likely to Get Worse - Good read - scary outlook by #IgorChudov
Excess Mortality and Elevated Cancer Rates Likely to Get WorseMortality statistics gives us enough cluesigorchudov.substack.com
Ever since that article, I wanted to see if antivaxxers’ hunches about
the cause of excess mortality are true. So, I set out to find data about
mortality in many countries and see if I can match it with vaccination
or booster uptake data.
Fortunately, I found data for both parameters. Mortality for the last
several years, by week, is listed in the Short Term Mortality
Database. That database has a CSV
file that you can download. Booster and vaccine uptake are in Our World in Data, which I downloaded into a SQL database
earlier.
Incidentally, I already used the OWID database to prove that boosters
are strongly associated with COVID mortality in Europe. (deaths from
Covid)
Steve Bartrick @stevechelt
Glad I declined the 'booster'! Boosters Now PROMOTE Covid Deaths in Europe
Boosters Now PROMOTE Covid Deaths in EuropeBa.5 turned out to be the “Boosted People Variant” after alligorchudov.substack.com
But what about excess total mortality, not just Covid
mortality? This is where we will look today.
Short Term Mortality
Database
After downloading the short term mortality data as a CSV file, I wrote a
perl script to read the data and analyze it.
The script loads data for two periods: main_year, or 2022, and three
base_years 2017 to 2019. The weeks selected for analysis are weeks 10 to 35. It
adds, for each country, the subtotal of deaths for every week found, and counts
the number of weeks found also (not all countries report exactly the
same number of weeks). I had to exclude Australia, Luxembourg, Czechia, and
South Korea due to not having enough data. (South Korea has a crazy 50% excess
mortality, look it up)
Given what we have, we can compare “deaths per week” (deaths divided by
count of weeks) for the 2022 period (main), as well as for 2017-2019 period
(base), for the same weeks of the corresponding years. I call the ratio
of “deaths per week” for these periods, MINUS ONE, the excess mortality.
NB: Note that this calculation is only a somewhat close approximation
of excess mortality that official statisticians calculate because they also
take into account small changes in population, etc. While these differences are
important in order to do completely proper demographic calculations, they are
minor enough to disregard for the purposes of my analysis, in my opinion. I
do compare same weeks of all years, to take seasonality into account.
This gives us the “excess mortality” data for each given country.
Our World in Data — Booster Rate and Vaccination
Rate
Our World in Data can give us the booster rate and vax rate per country.
I can just query my SQL database like so:
Thus, from my OWID database, I get data about “booster per 100 as of Jul
1, 2022”, as well as “vaccination rate as of March 1, 2022”. Just a note, early
booster data in OWID is lacking, so I chose booster rate as of Jul 1 just
to have valid data to work with. Selecting a booster date late in the period
does not, in any way, compromise the integrity of these findings. Quite the
opposite, looking at the effect of booster rate close to the end of the period,
captures the damage caused by boosters given during the period.
The compiled data, therefore, looks like this:
Relationship Between
Boosters, Vaccines and Deaths
I then ran a “linear regression” to see if there is a relationship between
booster uptake as of Jul 1 2022, and excess deaths in 2022. (things do not
change much if I move the date, as long as there is good data as of that date).
The result was
shocking!
It shows that booster uptake was extremely strongly (and positively)
related to excess mortality, with P value being 0.0002. Mind you, anything
with P below 0.05 is considered statistically significant — so P=0.0002 is
ironclad.
Since most of my readers are not statisticians, let me explain. The graph above means that the more boosters are taken, the greater
was excess mortality for the countries in the graph. The P=0.0002 means
that this association is extremely unlikely to be a random coincidence.
More boosters — more deaths!
Additionally, just one number per country — booster uptake as of a
particular day Jul 1 2022 — explains 40% of the variation in excess mortality.
This means that vaccination and boosters, likely, were an extremely important
factor for every country’s excess mortality.
I ran the same regression for the vaccination rate by March 1. The
result is principally the same, but slightly less impressive than for boosters
on Jul 1. Still extremely strong statistical significance, but slightly less
explanatory power called R-squared.
Disclaimers, Correlation,
and Causation
None of the above would validate a simple-minded statement such as “I
just proved that boosters make people croak and die”. That would NOT be a
correct interpretation. (hello fact checkers).
What is the proper interpretation is that there is an EXTREMELY
PROMINENT RELATIONSHIP between boosters and deaths in 2022. This is an alarm
signal and food for thought that needs to be analyzed further. We need to
search further to understand causality better.
Demographics is a complicated science and there are demographics
institutes in each country. I do not personally own a demographics institute
and only do what I can, with the skills I have. However, nobody owns me
either.
My Own Hypothesis
What is the underlying mechanism between excess mortality in 2022 and
booster uptake?
- Could it be deaths immediately
following vaccinations and booster shots?
- Could it be that boosters no longer provide
“death protection”, but instead increase the
chances of dying from Covid?
- Could it be greater rates of
reinfections of boosted people?
- Could it be long-term damage
from repeat Covid vaccinations
making people more likely to die in general?
- Is it possible that people keep producing
“spike protein” well beyond the promised “2-3 days”?
My answer is: all of the above.
What do you think? Any other ideas?
