In Good News, Excess Mortality Went Down
I wrote many posts on excess mortality. (Here’s a brief guide to them.)
It is exciting to see that a preprint article found the same association between death rates and vaccinations, where paradoxically, higher vaccination coverage led to higher mortality.
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Vaccines are supposed to save lives! Instead, we see that the more vaccines, the greater the mortality increases.
I found that same relationship in several articles, such as this one:
My first finding of this nature was published on Aug 30, 2022, and was shared quite a bit on social networks:
I am glad Jarle Aarstad and Olav Kvitastein found a similar relationship in European data.
Sadly, this pattern of vaccines associated with higher mortality held strong over time. If you remember, December of 2022 was a month of illness and death across Europe.
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Strong Association Between Vaccines and Deaths in December 2022
I decided to compare excess mortality for weeks 48-52 (5 weeks) of 2022, as the data for this period is finally available for many countries. The vaccination rates (as of Mar 2022) come from Our World in Data, and the excess mortality was recorded based on information from the short-term mortality database.
Here’s the data for weeks 48-52 of 2022:
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I analyzed this dataset with a linear regression calculator:
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You can see that the relationship has great statistical significance and no major outliers. Is there a causal relationship? I have written much about it, and Martin Neil and Norman Fenton analyzed it also.
The preprint above comes to the same conclusion:
When controlling for alternative explanations, the association remained robust, and we discuss the result emphasizing causality as well as potential ecological fallacy.
The authors thoroughly analyze the data and rule out Simpson’s Paradox and other vaccine advocates' contentions. Those curious may find a lot of interesting arguments against typical rebuttals of causality that we hear about. Take a look at pages 6 and 7 of the preprint.
The Good Mortality News - for my Theory and Europe
In the Covid-vaccine skeptic world, many opponents of Covid vaccines suggest that vaccines cause deaths via various direct mechanisms. (“spike protein slowly kills heart” or some such)
They may partly be right; however, such a straightforward explanation does not explain great month-to-month variations in death rates.
I claimed that excess mortality associated with Covid vaccines is mediated via transmissible illnesses such as Covid-19 or the flu, causing more deaths in Covid-vaccinated or boosted people.
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Fortunately, mortality news from February and March suggests that the above statement is correct. Why? The mortality went DOWN by a lot, and in Germany, for example, excess mortality recently became negative. That suggests that temporary factors such as transmissible illnesses were involved!
You can download the latest German mortality data from this Excel spreadsheet.
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This is, obviously, great news for Germany. The UK is also experiencing a welcome reduction in excess deaths after experiencing the worst mortality in years this January:
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You can see that there is more to the story than “vaccine spike protein slowly killing people.” There is something that causes excess death rates to jump up and down! Thus, I believe mortality is mediated by transmissible illnesses- Covid or the flu - but affects vaccinated people disproportionally.
I hope that this reduction in excess mortality will prove permanent. I am afraid, however, that it is temporary, and mortality will jump up again when the next wave of “Covid variants” or other mystery illnesses sickens people.
The future is hard to predict, and I will be most delighted if excess mortality goes away permanently.
Let us know what you think!
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